2024-10-16
On October 11, Tesla's stock took a sharp plunge, dropping over 8% in a single day, wiping out $67 billion in market value, which is roughly equivalent to 470 billion yuan. Behind this sudden crash was Elon Musk’s latest launch—the self-driving CyberCab. Instead of excitement, the market responded with disappointment, reflected directly in the stock price.
Tesla's "Pure Vision" Bet
From the beginning, Musk has insisted that autonomous driving should follow a "pure vision" approach. In other words, he abandoned LiDAR and other additional sensors, relying solely on cameras and algorithms to solve all problems. At first glance, this idea seems futuristic and can indeed cut costs. However, the simpler the system, the harder it is to function in the complex real world, especially in a field like autonomous driving, where safety is paramount. The market and regulators have never stopped questioning this approach.
CyberCab: Few Highlights, Big Challenges for Mass Production
The newly launched CyberCab boasts a futuristic design—there’s no steering wheel, pedals, or rearview mirrors. It features a two-seater layout with a wireless charging system. Musk promised that this vehicle would have an extremely low usage cost, with a final price of around $30,000, and mass production is expected by 2026 or 2027.
However, these "visions" didn’t impress investors. Instead, the market is growing increasingly impatient with Musk's "empty promises," especially since he hasn’t provided enough details or a clear timeline for mass production. Investors clearly aren't willing to buy into the hype anymore, and as a result, Tesla’s stock plummeted.
LiDAR: The "Steady" Path
In contrast to Tesla’s aggressive strategy, other players in the autonomous driving space have taken a more "cautious" route. Companies like Waymo, Cruise, and Zoox have not given up on LiDAR and millimeter-wave radar. Instead, they’ve chosen a multi-sensor fusion approach. While this increases costs, it significantly enhances the vehicle's perception capabilities and safety. This "steady" route also provides an advantage in winning regulatory approval and consumer trust.
LiDAR’s Rising Momentum
Despite Musk's repeated rejection of LiDAR, the global LiDAR market is growing rapidly, especially in China. Several LiDAR manufacturers have already taken a leading position worldwide, and the technology's cost is falling rapidly. Data shows that LiDAR costs are expected to drop by half over the next decade, meaning it could be integrated into more vehicles in the future.
The Ultimate Showdown: Safety vs. Cost
Tesla’s biggest challenge now is how to ensure the safety of autonomous driving, particularly in terms of passing regulatory approval. Whether LiDAR is truly redundant remains undetermined, but the competition between different technical routes is intensifying. If Musk's "pure vision" approach fails to meet safety expectations, it could face even more scrutiny and further drag down Tesla’s stock and market performance.
Conclusion
As LiDAR technology rapidly advances globally, especially with the rise of the Chinese market, the future of autonomous driving remains uncertain. Whether Tesla can make a comeback in this tech race will depend on whether Musk's "pure vision" strategy can find a balance between safety and cost.
